The Future of Drone Delivery
  • Category: Business , Economics
  • Topic: Corporations , Industry

Delivery drones are unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) designed to transport various goods including packages, medical supplies, food, and more. Delivery drones are often referred to as autonomous as they operate without human intervention. In November 2020, the FAA proposed airworthiness criteria for type certification of delivery drones, with the aim to begin commercial operations, and ten companies, including Zipline, Wingcopter, and Amazon Prime Air, were selected for this type of certification.

E-commerce companies have been providing delivery services for over a decade, but until recently, we've seen little change. However, the introduction of drones in the delivery service industry has expedited the delivery process, leading to a change in customer behavior. Autonomous drones have become popular for last-mile deliveries, especially in rural or remote areas with less population density. With an expected growth in quick or same-day delivery over the next few years, door-to-door delivery service has become a major area of research for several industry giants, including Amazon, DHL, Google, and UPS. Some of these companies have already started drone delivery services since 2005, and they are expected to launch their services by 2023.

The drone delivery service industry worldwide is expected to witness gradual growth between 2023-2030. The key driving factor is the demand for quick and instant delivery, mainly in the case of medical commodities and food supplies. The increasing need for healthcare deliveries, such as medicines and blood samples, especially in remote areas or during any global epidemic or pandemic, is also one of the significant reasons behind the expected shift from traditional package logistics systems to drone delivery services.

Overall, the introduction of drone delivery services is changing the delivery process, leading to more efficiency, reliability, and customer satisfaction. The increasing need for contactless deliveries due to COVID-19 has further increased the demand for drone delivery services. Given these circumstances, it is evident that drone delivery services are reliable.

One of the most crucial metrics when it comes to reliability is the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF), which is measured in the hours of activity. The higher the value, the more dependable the equipment. For a system or sub-system, the MTBF is often expressed as the reciprocal of reliability.

There are several countries where delivery drone adoption is in process. In Asia, delivery is being explored for parcels and shipments in China and Japan. In Africa, medical supplies and test samples are being delivered to rural or remote areas in Rwanda and Ghana. In Oceania, food, personal necessities, and home care commodities are being delivered to Australia and Vanuatu. In Europe, food, medicines, and other retail products are being delivered to Finland, Iceland and Switzerland. Lastly, multiple states in the US and Canada are exploring drone deliveries for all types of packages.

Commercial systems for delivery drones have already been developed. Early prototypes include the Tacocopter demonstration by Star Simpson, which utilized a smartphone app to order drone-delivered tacos in the San Francisco area. Different postal companies from countries such as Australia, Switzerland, Germany, Singapore, and the UK have also undertaken various unmanned drone delivery services.

One example of a company that specializes in drone delivery is Drone Delivery Canada. They have developed a proprietary and patented turnkey drone delivery solution that is cost-effective, highly scalable, and can provide next-generation logistics services to various market sectors. They are the official partner of Air Canada and can offer their services to retail, e-commerce, parcel and post, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, mining, oil and gas, logistics companies, indigenous communities, military, and government agencies in Canada and internationally.

The company Zipline has partnered with the government of Rwanda to construct and operate a medical distribution center in Muhanga. Due to Rwanda's mountainous terrain, poor road conditions, and long rainy season, an aerial delivery system is more cost-efficient and timely than traditional road-based deliveries. As of May 2018, they have delivered over 7,000 units of blood using drones.

Another example is Wing Incubated by Google X, which began commercial deliveries in Christiansburg, Virginia. It can carry parcels weighing up to three pounds using a tether for the final drop. They have also delivered over a thousand meals to Virginia Tech students and employees.

The driving force behind innovation in delivery drones is to cut down on delivery time for packages. Many companies are promising to deliver packages in 30 minutes or less, but the take-off location and pathway of the drones is crucially important.

The second method for delivering parcels involves the use of traditional delivery trucks that will function as the operations center for all drone delivery operations. Drones will work in tandem with the navigation systems in these vehicles to deliver items to more rural locations.

Just like any other aircraft, delivery drones need to observe the laws of physics and aerodynamics while in the air and en route. Delivery drones come in various shapes and sizes, with four-rotor drones having two blades that spin clockwise and another two that spin counterclockwise. The rotation of these blades, along with stabilization technology, generates the thrust necessary to maintain the drone's position in the air. However, when delivering items, the drone's carrying capacity must also be taken into account. Larger packages require more robust and efficient drones to ensure a smooth delivery operation.

To enable drones to fly beyond the visible line of sight, technology that includes guidance from GPS systems is needed. Drones guided by these systems will be able to deliver packages to the customer's location, although they might encounter potential obstacles such as birds, trees, or other drones in the airspace. Autonomous obstacle avoidance systems are necessary to prevent airborne and ground accidents, with an Unmanned Traffic Management system expected to control the airspace in the coming years. Drones will be equipped with built-in sensors and cameras capable of detecting nearby objects' proximity and speed, allowing them to take appropriate action to avoid any obstacles.

In the future, drones are expected to become a common sight in Indian cities and towns used for various tasks such as providing delivery services or even surveying or spraying pesticides in fields. Drone makers and service providers are increasing their product offerings and ramping up their hiring to meet the expected surge in demand. This demand is likely to grow further with the government's Production-Linked Incentive scheme expected to lower drone prices. Companies such as Skylark Drones, Grene Robotics, Aarav Unmanned Drones, and Sky Air Mobility have all reported an increase in their sales by 3-5% in the past year and are expanding their teams accordingly.

According to the Indian Drone Market Report 2019-2024 by Drone Industry Insights, India is the fastest-growing market for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). The report also notes that the global drone market is expected to surpass $43 billion in 2024, a significant increase from the $14 billion figure recorded in 2018.

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